by STOA CONSEIL ET COACHING

Quote gallery

From the paper CHANGING THE DNA IN HIGHER EDUCATION INDUSTRY, released July 10, 2020 by Enseignement Sup Conseil
 

“Thirty years from now, the big university campuses will be relics.”
Peter Drucker, 1997

“Plugging a disruptive innovation into an existing business model never results in transformation of the model.
Instead, the existing model co-opts the innovation to sustain how it operates.”
Clayton Christensen

“I think higher education is just on the edge of the crevasse. Generally, universities are doing very well financially, so they don’t feel from the data that their world is going to collapse. But I think even five years from now these enterprises are going to be in real trouble.”
Clayton Christensen, 2013

« MIT/Google could offer a two-year degree in STEM. The myth/magic of campuses and geography is no longer a constraining factor — most programs will be hybrid soon, dramatically increasing enrollments among the best brands. MIT/Google could enroll 100,000 kids at $100,000 in tuition (a bargain), yielding $5 billion a year (two-year program) that would have margins rivaling … MIT and Google. Bocconi/Apple, Carnegie Mellon/Amazon, UCLA/Netflix, Berkeley/Microsoft … you get the idea. »
Scott Galloway, 2020 Professor of marketing, New York University’s Stern School of Business

Digital transformation is not about adding new technologies to legacy processes, only to make them faster and more scalable. Digital transformation is about inventing new processes, new change management paradigms, new organizational structures, new talent recruitment and retention, new business models and revenue streams, new partner ecosystems, and new platforms that address integration, scalability and adaptability based on the combined effect of new emerging technologies like machine learning, voice enabled technologies, distributed ledgers, and internet-of-things.
Vala Afshar, 2020 Chief Digital Evangelist Salesforce

Changing the DNA

Introduction of the paper CHANGING THE DNA IN HIGHER EDUCATION INDUSTRY, released July 10, 2020 by Enseignement Sup Conseil

The Covid-19 crisis and the following economic crisis are the triggers of a dramatic acceleration of the pace of the transformation in progress in many economic sectors.

This transformation is driven by strong forces initiated by the digital revolution. It is completely reshaping economy, society, jobs and of course education and lifelong learning.

Digital players are already the winners of the crisis. They may be the leaders of the post-Covid “new normal” economy. The ball is in the court of decision makers of traditional players of industries, including education and lifelong learning.

A few years ago, the father of the theory of disruption, Clayton M.  Christensen dared to use the expression “changing the DNA of higher education” to qualify the scale of the transformation to come in this specific industry. Indeed, he was right.

The Covid-19 crisis underlines that traditional and dominant players of education and lifelong learning industries are at great risk because they are late in the digital transformation. But traditional players have a unique opportunity right now to catch up and change.

The next two years will be critical.

First, traditional players will have to implement short term plans to face low income and heavier expenses. But they also have to reframe their strategies to be able to compete favourably on the new disruptive market of education and lifelong learning.  To be clear, their challenge will be to find a way to start a successful mutation of their DNA.

In order to help traditional players, 

– we give our analysis of the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis,

– we give leads to define a relevant strategy of transformation,

– we present the drivers that reshape education and lifelong learning,

– we detail the mechanism of disruption.

Time is running out.

Dr. Tanguy Cathelain, Founder of Enseignement Sup Conseil

What we learn from the Covid-19 crisis

From the paper CHANGING THE DNA IN HIGHER EDUCATION INDUSTRY, released July 10, 2020 by Enseignement Sup Conseil

The Covid-19 crisis is like an earthquake for all industries, including education industry worldwide.

Let’s take some headlines from University World News, 31 May 2020 Issue N° 600:

– UNITED STATES: International enrolment drop to cost universities US$4.5bn

– AUSTRALIA: Hundreds of university jobs lost already due to pandemic

– GLOBAL: Towards a flexible and adaptable HE after COVID-19

– INDIA : Blended learning is the way forward after the pandemic.

In France, the association of Engineering Schools (CDEFI) has stated (2020, 27 May) that the problems at stake are serious. They include global financial imbalance, uncertainties on work-study contracts (i.e. apprenticeship) and research contracts, possible new strategies to maintain international recruitment and new learning approaches to prepare next fall.

This unexpected crisis has huge consequences. It is revealing how far the traditional education systems are from embracing the digital revolution. Everywhere schools, colleges and universities have improvised non-perfect online solutions, while Tech Giants and edtech companies have opened free their platforms as for example Tencent in China or BYJU’S in India. 

Pandemic uncertainties and the vast test of online education are opening a new era: education, including higher education, is going to change radically despite resistance and a feeling of unbelievable.

The four lessons of the crisis

From the paper CHANGING THE DNA IN HIGHER EDUCATION INDUSTRY, released July 10, 2020 by Enseignement Sup Conseil

Lesson 1 : The unexpected is always possible

The Covid-19 crisis has caught by surprise any industry in the world. Some have been badly hurt, others, mainly in the digital world, are luckier.

The traditional industry of education was not either prepared. It did what it could with improvisation, energy and good will of all stakeholders. Results are mitigated. Pupils and students have had and still have the possibility to study, but at a lower level of quality and sometimes in very degraded conditions.

All this shows a lack of risks analysis of possible disruptive events and of preparation of strategies to cope, here, with the physical closure of schools and universities. Moreover, although the technologies are available and could have been used widely for years, the crisis reveals that traditional industry has not invested at the level it could have done. This would have improved the quality of education in normal times and helped backup plans.

Trends 1 : Education is an industry and it is supposed to provide services at an expected level of quality. To be able to fulfil its commitments, industry should develop strategic watch and anticipation whereas the world is facing growing uncertainties due to technology disruptions, economic and financial crisis, climate change and its consequences, geopolitics movements and from now on pandemic threats.

Lesson 2 : Traditional industry of education is not fully engaged in the digital transformation

It is now more than twenty years that technologies are eating the world at an accelerating pace driven by GAFAM, BATX and numerous minor players. Companies dies, others are flourishing. Any industry is concerned by this transformation.

What the Covid-19 crisis reveals clearly is that most traditional and dominant players of education industry are far from where they could or should be:

– the digital transformation of processes and the organization of remote working are rare,

– the transformation of the core business (education & lifelong learning) is not often engaged and prepared to online or blended learning.

It is as if lots of players are thinking that the industry as it is today will endure, and that they are bound to survive.

The Covid-19 crisis, as Brexit for example, shows clearly that the unexpected is possible. 

Trends 2 : as in other industries, the Covid-19 crisis reveals strengths and weaknesses of various players of education. They should catch up in digital transformation. 

Lesson 3 : The four drivers of the transformation of education industry are at work

Music, retail, bank, hospitality industries give examples of the pressure of digital transformation. Up to now, education and lifelong learning seemed to have had a little more time to transform. Four drivers are leading this industry to a new paradigm. Trends are reinforced by the Covid-19 crisis and the pace is accelerating.

Driver 1: the need for education and lifelong learning

We knew, before the crisis, that the need for first education and lifelong learning is already huge. The crisis put all industries and the society under pressure of transformation.  Education and learning players, traditional or not, have a tremendous market opportunity to provide solutions to fill the skills gap.

Driver 2: the transformation of education and lifelong learning

The crisis stresses the relevance of the transformation of education and learning in new formats including online and blended, a focus on skills, individualization, coaching rather than teaching …

Driver 3: Credentials

The need to train quickly armies of people able to digitize activities, companies and industries will make room and legitimate new competency-based and flexible credentials.

Driver 4: Value chains

Edtech companies, GAFAM and BATX are clearly the winners of the crisis. Their master the virtual world:

– they provide solutions for marketing in substitution to real fairs, lectures and interviews;

–   they virtualize classrooms and meetings;

–   they offer innovative learning solutions;

–   they are present at almost every step of the value chain.   

As in other industries, newcomers are disrupting the market with innovative solutions and massive financial resources.

Trends 3: higher education and lifelong learning industries are shaken by four drivers that will lead to a brand new industry.

The brand new industry: a huge market centred on skills, new ways and formats of training and new credentials, a strong presence of digital industry at every step of the value chain of education and lifelong learning, a new landscape of competition and maybe in a context of long-term pandemic uncertainties. 

Lesson 4 : Traditional industry is vulnerable

Traditional industry is weakened by the crisis.

Its resources are jeopardized due especially to uncertainties on international recruitments and on apprenticeships or to difficulties to grasp opportunities on the new skills markets.

In a context of a long term pandemic crisis, with a degraded quality of service, schools and universities could be asked for permanent discounts on fees. It has already happened since the beginning of the crisis. They could also lose market shares, because they could appear less attractive than the digital offers of digital competitors, either newcomers or transformed traditional competitors. 

Moreover, traditional industry is generally handicapped by a high level of investment in brick-and-mortar and a low flexibility in staff management, including faculty.

Trends 4 : traditional players of the industry are at risk. Their past strategies have led them to a vulnerable position and to real difficulties to cope with the new paradigm of the industry. 

In conclusion, what we learn from the Covid-19 crisis :

The traditional industry shows:

– a lack of anticipation of disruptive events: what may happen and which strategy to cope with,

– a far too low investment in digital transformation,

– a great vulnerability on the core business, finances, technologies, skills, markets …

Besides, digital industry and players already engaged in the transformation appear to be the winners of the crisis.

L'enseignement supérieur en 2030

• Published on Linkedin, September 23, 2018

Times Higher Education publie une enquête très instructive sur la vision que plus de 200 leaders d’université de rang mondial (Europe = 50%, Asie 25% et Amérique du Nord 15%) ont de leur secteur et de leur établissement à l’horizon 2030.

Quelle est la vision de ces leaders?

1.      Une vision largement partagée

Ces 200 leaders de 45 pays et de tous les continents partagent une même vision de l’avenir. Leurs analyses sont très convergentes, au-delà de certaines nuances liées largement à la spécificité des systèmes éducatifs.

2.      Une réaffirmation du cœur de métier

La course aux classements et l’énergie nécessaire pour développer la recherche ont parfois pu faire douter. Mais la priorité numéro 1 est bien de conduire les étudiants vers l’excellence et en deuxième position de développer la recherche.

3.      L’inquiétude sur le modèle économique

Les préoccupations exprimées sur l’évolution des financements sont fortes. Elles se traduisent par de réelles craintes, partagées au niveau mondial sur le niveau futur des fonds publics alloués à l’enseignement supérieur. Elles débouchent sur une projection, par voie de nécessité, vers une croissance de la part des fonds pour la recherche, privés ou publics, d’autres sources privées contractuelles, puis des droits de scolarité ainsi que des levées de fonds. En ce qui concerne les recteurs américains, ils accordent une première priorité à ces deux dernières sources de financement.

Malgré les menaces qui planent et qui pourraient s’accroître en cas de nouvelle crise économique, aucun des leaders ne voit une possible disparition de son université à l’horizon 2030. Les recteurs américains soulignent néanmoins les risques forts existants pour des universités à rayonnement et soutiens moindres. Ils rejoignant ainsi en partie l’analyse de Clayton Christensen qui prédit, depuis plusieurs années, que 50% des 4000 universités et « colleges » américains déposeront le bilan dans les dix à quinze prochaines années sous la pression d’un marché online en plein développement.

Enfin, le panel est partagé sur la possibilité que l’enseignement supérieur privé occupe en 2030 une place plus importante qu’aujourd’hui.

4.      Des tendances de fond dans le cœur de métier

–          Une croissance du nombre d’étudiants dans les disciplines STEM, pronostic un peu moins accentué en Europe

–         Un renforcement des liens avec l’industrie

–         Le développement des micro-certifications et des diplômes courts pour répondre à une demande d’adaptation des compétences liées à la révolution technologique, entraînant une augmentation du nombre d’étudiants qui retournent à l’université

–       Une priorité croissante (subie plus que voulue) accordée à la recherche appliquée plutôt qu’à la recherche fondamentale

Quels enseignements ?

La vision 2030 des 200 leaders souligne quatre axes stratégiques majeurs qui vont structurer l’évolution des établissements de premier rang, mais aussi de tout le secteur de l’enseignement supérieur dans les prochaines années :      

–    Une mutation profonde du modèle économique, allant au-delà du changement dans l’architecture des financements, afin de permettre de remplir avec performance et durablement les missions d’enseignement et de recherche

–      Une orientation forte vers la professionnalisation, en particulier pour accompagner la mutation des métiers et des compétences liées à la révolution technologique, avec en corollaire le développement de l’executive education

–     Un positionnement croissant sur les disciplines STEM pour répondre aux besoins des entreprises et aux aspirations des étudiants d’une société de plus en plus technologique

–     Une interaction accrue avec l’industrie et les entreprises, par le canal de la recherche, de la formation, des financements, d’un travail conjoint pour développer des parcours – compétences

Aux acteurs de l’enseignement supérieur, de tous niveaux, publics ou privés, d’adopter une posture d’anticipation et de mettre en œuvre la stratégie qui leur permettra de réussir la mutation.

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by STOA CONSEIL ET COACHING